The Federal Reserve Meets Today. Should You Lock Your Rate Before It Adjourns?

The Federal Open Market Committee adjourns from its 6th scheduled meeting of the year today, and 7th overall.

Upon adjournment, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will release a formal statement to the market. In it, the Fed is expected to announce "no change" to the Fed Funds Rate.

Currently, the Fed Funds Rate is within a target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.  It's been at this same level since December 2008.

Note that the Feds Funds Rate is not "a mortgage rate" -- nor is it a a consumer rate of any kind. The Fed Funds Rate is a rate that defines the cost of an overnight loan between banks. And, although the Fed Funds Rate has little direct consequence to everyday homeowners, it is the basis for Prime Rate, the interest rate on which most consumer cards are based, plus many business loans, too.

Therefore, because the Fed Funds Rate won't change today, neither will credit card rates.  Mortgage rates, however, are a different story.  Mortgage rates should change today -- regardless of what the Fed does.

It's more about what the Fed says.

In its statement, the Federal Reserve will highlight strengths and weaknesses in the economy, and threats to growth over the next few quarters. Depending on how Wall Street interprets these remarks, mortgage rates may rise or fall.

If the Fed's comments signal better-than-expected growth, bond markets should lose and mortgage rates should rise. Conversely, if the Fed's comments signal worse-than-expected growth, mortgage rates should fall.

If you're actively shopping for a mortgage, it may be prudent to lock your rate ahead of the Fed's announcement today. The Fed adjourns at 2:15 PM ET.  Call your loan officer to lock your rate.

The Fed meets 8 times annually.

Home Affordability Gets A Boost From Weak Back-to-School Retail Receipts

The recent rise in mortgage rates was slowed this week after the government released its Retail Sales report for August.

Prior to Tuesday, mortgage rates had been spiking on the resurgent hope for U.S. economic recovery. The sentiment shift was rooted in reports including the Pending Home Sales Index and Initial Jobless Claims, both of which showed surprising strength last week.

August's Retail Sales, though, after removing motor vehicles, auto parts and gasoline sales, failed to maintain the momentum. Its figures were actually in-line with expectations -- it's just that expectations weren't all that high.

Wall Street now wonders whether the weak Back-to-School shopping season will trend forward into the holidays.

The doubt spells good news for mortgage rates and home affordability.

Because Retail Sales is tied to consumer spending and consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy, a weak reading tends to drag down stock markets and pump up bonds, and when bonds are in demand, mortgage rates fall.

This is exactly what happened Tuesday. The soft Retail Sales data eased stock markets down, and generated new demand for mortgage bonds. This demand caused bond prices to rise, which, in turn, caused mortgage rates to fall.

Mortgage rates did not cut new lows this week, but they're very, very close.

With mortgage rates at historical lows, it's an excellent time to look at a refinance, or gauge what financing a new home would cost. Low rates like this can't last forever.

The Math Of Choosing A Great Closing Date

Want a lower mortgage rate on your upcoming home buy? Think about moving up the closing date.

The reason is rooted in "rate locks", a bank's guarantee to honor a specific mortgage rate for a specific, finite period of time. Rate locks allow home buyers to reserve mortgage rates today even though their respective closings may be scheduled as far as a year into the future.

A rate lock is a contract. No matter what the "current market rate" is at the time of closing, the bank will honor the terms of the original rate lock.

It would be like making an agreement to buy Microsoft stock at a specific price 60 days from now. No matter what the price, you already know what you're paying for it.

In this sense, rate locks are predictions about the future and, meanwhile, as we all know, the future can be a challenge to forecast. Lenders know this, too, of course, so it's easy to understand why longer rate locks tend to be more expensive than shorter ones.

The longer the rate lock, the more risk to the bank.

To compensate for this "time risk", therefore, lenders typically step-up pricing for rate lock guarantees as lock period lengthen.

• 15-day rate lock : The best of all pricing
• 30-day rate lock : 1/8 percent extra cost versus the 15-day rate lock
• 45-day rate lock : 1/4 percent extra cost versus the 15-day rate lock
• 60-day rate lock : 3/8 percent extra cost versus the 15-day rate lock

One percent of "extra cost" is defined as one percent of the borrowed amount.

Now, this incremental price chart is just a rough guideline; exact spreads vary from lender-to-lender. Overall, however, it's fairly close.

That's why it's important to manage your closing date vis-a-vis your mortgage rate. Closing in 30 days versus 31 can save you an eighth-percent in closing costs. Assuming a loan size of $200,000, that's $2,500 saved.

So, when negotiating a closing date on a contract, keep in mind the math of mortgage rate locks. The shorter its length, the more money you might save.

Your ARM Is Adjusting Lower. Is There A Downside To Letting It?

When adjustable-rate mortgages are on the verge of adjusting, a common concern among homeowners is that their mortgage rates will adjust higher.

Well, this year, because of the math of how ARMs adjust, homeowners around the country are seeing that mortgage rates on ARMs can sometimes adjust lower, too.

Adjusting conforming mortgages are adjusting to as low as 3 percent.

As a quick review, here's the timeline for most conforming adjustable-rate mortgages:

1. There's a "starter period" in which the interest rate remains fixed. This can range from 1-10 years.
2. There's a rate change after the starter period. It's called the "first adjustment".
3. Subsequent, annual adjustments follow until the loan "ends". This is usually after Year 30.

The adjustments each year are based on a math formula that's included in the contract with your lender. It's surprisingly basic.  Each year, your new, adjusted mortgage rate is equal to the sum of some constant -- usually 2.25 percent -- and some variable.  The variable is most commonly equal to the 12-month LIBOR.

As a formula, the math looks like this:

(Adjusted Mortgage Rates) = (12-Month LIBOR) + (2.250 Percent)

LIBOR is an acronym standing for London Interbank Offered Rate. It's an interest rate at which banks borrow money from each other -- very similar to our Fed Funds Rate here in the United States. And also like our Fed Funds Rate, LIBOR has been low lately.

As a result, adjusting mortgage rates have been low, too.

In 2009, 5-year ARMs adjusted to 6 percent or higher. Today, ARMs are adjusting to 3.000%.

Based on the math, you may want to let your ARM adjust with the market year. Or, if you plan to keep your home long-term and have concerns about adjustments in 2011 and beyond, it may be a good time to open a new ARM.  The same forces that are driving down LIBOR and helping to keep mortgage rates low overall, too.

Consider talking to your loan officer and making a plan. With mortgage rates as low as they've been in history, most homeowners have options.  Just don't wait too long. LIBOR — and mortgage rates in general — are known to change quickly.

Mortgage Rates May Be Low, But They're Tough To Pin Down -- Especially This Week

Mortgage rates are low right now but pinning them down this week could be a challenge. As Labor Day Weekend nears and Wall Streeters take their head-start on the holiday, trading volume will fall, which will cause mortgage rates to get jumpy.

As mortgage rates change, so does the long-term cost of owning a home. Every 1/8 percent adjustment changes a household budget.

Meanwhile, the relationship between "vacation days" and mortgage rate volatility is an interesting one; based more in scarcity than market fundamentals.

Rates tend to get volatile near holidays because of two inter-related facts:

1. Conforming mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds
2. Mortgage-backed bonds can't trade without a buyer and a seller at a specific price

So, as the week progresses and more traders leave for their respective "extended" 3-day weekends, there's fewer buyers and sellers left on Wall Street to connect for a trade.  As a result, mortgage bond prices move across larger gaps than on a "normal" day which, in turn, translates into faster, larger changes in rates.

This phenomenon can be exaggerated during periods of economic uncertainty -- like what we're in now -- and, furthermore, there's a bevy of important data set for release this week including the FOMC Minutes, inflation data, and August jobs figures.

In other words, rates would have been volatile without the vacation week. The presence of Labor Day just piles on.

Mortgage rates may rise this week, or they may fall.  Either way, if you have a chance to lock something favorable and within your budget, consider doing it.  Rates are at all-time lows and likely won't last.

The Fed Is Meeting Today. Should You Float Or Lock Your Mortgage Rate?

The Federal Open Market Committee holds a one-day meeting today, its fifth scheduled meeting of the year, and sixth overall since January.

The FOMC is the government's monetary policy-setting arm and the group's primary tool for that purpose is an interest rate called the Fed Funds Rate. 

The Fed Funds Rate is the prescribed rate at which banks borrow money from each other and, since December 16, 2008, the Federal Reserve has voted to keep the benchmark rate within a target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

It's the lowest Fed Funds Rate in history.

Because the Fed Funds Rate is near zero, it's accommodative of economic growth, spurring businesses and consumers to borrow money on the cheap. This, in turn, fosters economic growth within a U.S. economy that is somewhat tentative and facing headwinds.

The Fed has said over and again that it will hold the Fed Funds Rate "exceptionally low" for as long as conditions warrant.  It's expect that the Fed will reiterate that message in today's post-meeting press release.

However, just because the Fed Funds Rate won't be changing today, that doesn't mean that mortgage rates won't.  Mortgage rates are not set by the Federal Reserve; open markets make mortgage rates.

Mortgage rates tend to be volatile when the Fed is meeting. This is because the Fed's press release highlights strengths and weaknesses in the economy and, depending on how Wall Street views those remarks, bond markets can undulate and mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds.

When Ben Bernanke & Co. speak, Wall Street listens. 

The Fed's press release today will be dissected and analyzed.  Talk of higher-than-expected inflation, or better-than-expected growth should have a negative effect on rates. Talk of an economic slowdown may help rates to fall.

Either way, we can't be certain what the Fed will say or do this afternoon so if you're floating a rate right now and wondering whether the time is right to lock, the safe choice is to lock before 2:15 PM ET today.

30-Year Mortgage Rates Make New Lows, But Look Ready To Spike

No doubt you've heard that mortgage rates are low. They're lower than they've ever been in history.  The news is everywhere.

Just check out some of these headlines from the last 24 hours:

• Mortgage rates set new lows for the 6th straight week (Reuters)
• Mortgage rates fall again; 30-year fixed at 4.54% (Wall Street Journal)
• Mortgage rates hit another low : 4.54% (NPR)

Fixed mortgage rates are now down more than 1/2 percent from the start of the year, and 3/4 percent from just 1 year ago. The drop has dramatically improved home affordability for home buyers while creating refinance opportunities for existing homeowners.

From a payment perspective, a conforming, 30-year fixed rate mortgage is now cheaper by $41.94 per month per $100,000 borrowed versus July 2009.

A homeowner with a $300,000 mortgage, therefore, is saving $45,295.20 over 30 years.

Low mortgage rates rarely last long and rates appear to have troughed. After a big downhill between April and July, they're now flat. This could mean rates have finished falling, or that they're gearing up for another drop lower. Either way, if you haven't talked to your real estate agent about home affordability, or your loan officer about refinancing, it may be time to make that call.

If today's market marks the end of low rates, rates are expected to rise quickly.

Falling Consumer Confidence Helps Drag Mortgage Rates Lower. For Now.

For the second consecutive month, U.S. consumer confidence is plunging. July's official reading is its lowest since July of last year and the figures run in stark contrast to just two months ago, when the index touched a multi-year high.

According to The Conference Board, July's figures are reflective of a more pessimistic consumer; one concerned about "business conditions and the labor market".

Falling confidence numbers are presumed to be poor for the economy. For homeowner and home buyers , however, they can create opportunity.  Low confidence can influence the mortgage market in a positive manner, driving mortgage rates down.

Mortgage rates are already at their lowest levels of all-time.

The link between consumer confidence and everyday mortgage rates roots in consumer spending.

Consumer spending accounts for close to 70% of the overall U.S. economy so, the thought goes that, a less confident consumer is less likely to spend money, thereby retarding economic growth. This harms the stock markets and drives cash to bonds, including mortgage-backed bonds.

More bond demand leads bond prices to rise which, in turn, pushes mortgage rates lower.

The other side of lagging confidence is that Americans may be less likely to take new financial risks when they're feeling unsure, including buying a new home. This can then drag on the housing market, negatively impacting home prices.

Falling home values can help buyers, harm sellers, and stymie would-be refinancers.

It's tough to predict how consumer confidence data will work its way through the economy, but in the near-term, it appears to be helping mortgage rates stay low. If you're floating a mortgage rate with your lender, or contemplating a refinance, the time may be right to lock in a rate.

Low rates can't last forever.

The Fed's June Minutes Keep Mortgage Rates In Rally-Mode

According to Freddie Mac, mortgage rates made new all-time lows this week and the good news is that rates look poised to fall even more.

Since the Federal Reserve's release of its June 2010 meeting minutes Wednesday, mortgage rates are dipping even more and one of the main reasons why is because of some choice Fed words.

If you've never seen a Fed Minutes release, it reads academic. The document is page after page of stats, facts and figures about the U.S. economy, accompanied by an in-depth recap of the intra-Fed member debates that shape the nation's monetary policy.

At 7,333 words, the June Fed Minutes is the unabridged version of the more well-known, post-meeting press release.  The corresponding press release was just 360 words.

As it turns out, Wall Street didn't like what it read in the minutes.  Specifically:

1. The Fed expects below normal growth through 2012
2. The Fed's outlook for employment has dipped
3. Credit conditions are easing only slowly

Furthermore, the Fed said its action may be needed if the economy were "to worsen appreciably".

Overall, the economic optimism the Fed displayed earlier this year appears to be waning. The economy is moving forward -- just not as quickly as expected.  That should bode well for mortgage rates and home shopping.

Mortgage rates were down Wednesday afternoon and Thursday and remain historically low. All it would take to reverse rates, however, is a run of positive news on jobs, growth, and consumer spending.  Therefore, if you know you need to lock a mortgage rate in the near-term, it may be a good time to make the call. 

Lock your mortgage rate and move on.

The Year Is Half-Over. How Did The Housing Experts Fare On Their Predictions?

As 2009 was ending, the "experts" were busy making forecasts about the U.S. economy and what to expect in 2010.

With respect to the housing markets, two predictions were made again and again:

1. Home prices would fall in the first half of 2010
2. Mortgage rates would be higher in 2010

Well, it's July 1 and the year is half-over.  Both predictions are proving to be incorrect. Home values are rising in most markets and mortgage rates are down. Way down. 

It reminds us that economists are much more skilled with analysis of the past versus predictions of the future.

A pile of data can only get you so far.

Think of housing market predictions like watching a local weather forecast. A meteorologist can look at the radar and tell you that rain is coming, but it's never with 100% certainty.  There is always a chance of change.

The housing market is the same way.  Just as the U.S. economy is unpredictable, so are housing prices, and so are mortgage rates. 

Therefore, when you have a personal finance decision to make, evaluate your options based on the information at hand today rather than an educated guess about the future. The future, after all, is subject to change -- despite what the experts forecast.

The 1 Force That Can Really Change A Mortgage Rate

All day, every day, conforming and FHA mortgage rates are in flux.  Rates move in response to hundreds of factors which exact varying levels of influence.

Among the biggest influences on mortgage rates is inflation.  When inflation is unexpectedly high, mortgage rates tend to rise quickly. Conversely, when inflation is unexpectedly low, rates tend to fall quickly.

But what is inflation?

By definition, inflation is when a currency loses its value; when what used to cost $1.00 now costs $1.10.

As consumers, we recognize inflation by the items we buy on a daily basis becoming more expensive.  However, it's not that goods are more expensive -- it's that the dollars we're using to buy them have become worth less.

With respect to mortgage rates, this is a big deal because mortgage rates are directly related to the price of a special type of bond called a mortgage-backed bond.

On Wall Street, mortgage-backed bonds are priced, bought, and sold in U.S. dollars so as inflation renders those dollars less valuable, so it does to mortgage-backed bonds as well. It's a chain reaction by which mortgage bonds lose value, leading investors sell them, causing bond prices to fall on the excess supply.

And, because mortgage rates move opposite of bond prices, as inflation takes hold, mortgage rates rise.

Lately, inflation has been exceptionally low. The Federal Reserve acknowledged as much in its last statement to the markets, and available data backs that position.  This, after predictions that inflation would be "runaway" in 2010.

The Cost of Living is up just modestly this year and it's helping mortgage rates stay low. And, so long as it lasts, the cost of owning a home will remain relatively inexpensive.

A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (June 23, 2010 Edition)

Today, in its first meeting in 5 weeks, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-to-1 to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged. 

The Fed Fund Rate remains within its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC said that, since April, "the economic recovery is proceeding" and that the jobs market "is improving gradually". Business spending "has risen significantly", too, with the exception of commercial real estate.

Today's statement is the 8th straight press release in which the Fed shows optimism for the U.S. economy, dating back to June 2009.  Since that time, the Fed has terminated all of the programs it created to support the economy through the economic crisis.

The recession is widely believed to be over.

And, although the Fed's statement acknowledged economic growth, it did highlight lingering threats, too.

1. Employers are still reluctant to hire new workers
2. European debt concerns could spill-over to the U.S.
3. Bank lending is contracting

Also, as expected, the Fed re-affirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent "for an extended period", citing that "inflation has trended lower" recently.

Mortgage market reaction has been positive thus far. Mortgage rates in are slightly improved post-FOMC.

The FOMC's next scheduled meeting is August 10, 2010.

A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (June 23, 2010 Edition)

Today, in its first meeting in 5 weeks, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-to-1 to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged. 

The Fed Fund Rate remains within its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC said that, since April, "the economic recovery is proceeding" and that the jobs market "is improving gradually". Business spending "has risen significantly", too, with the exception of commercial real estate.

Today's statement is the 8th straight press release in which the Fed shows optimism for the U.S. economy, dating back to June 2009.  Since that time, the Fed has terminated all of the programs it created to support the economy through the economic crisis.

The recession is widely believed to be over.

And, although the Fed's statement acknowledged economic growth, it did highlight lingering threats, too.

1. Employers are still reluctant to hire new workers
2. European debt concerns could spill-over to the U.S.
3. Bank lending is contracting

Also, as expected, the Fed re-affirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent "for an extended period", citing that "inflation has trended lower" recently.

Mortgage market reaction has been positive thus far. Mortgage rates in are slightly improved post-FOMC.

The FOMC's next scheduled meeting is August 10, 2010.

Making A Mortgage Rate Strategy Ahead Of The Fed's Meeting This Week

The Federal Open Market Committee begins a 2-day meeting today, its fourth scheduled meeting of the year, and fifth overall.

The FOMC is the monetary policy-setting part of the government and its primary tool for that purpose is the Fed Funds Rate. 

The Fed Funds Rate is the dictated rate at which banks borrow money from each other and, since December 16, 2008, the Federal Reserve has voted to keep the benchmark rate within a target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

This is the lowest Fed Funds Rate in history. A rate near zero-point-zero percent renders borrowing by business and consumers cheap which, in turn, promotes investment and growth.

There's no expectation for the Fed to change the Fed Funds Rate after it adjourns tomorrow, but that doesn't mean consumers should expect mortgage rates to remain unchanged, too.

To the contrary, mortgage rates tend to be volatile when the FOMC is meeting.  This is because the FOMC issues a press release after each meeting and in that press release, it comments on the economy's unique threats, strengths and weaknesses.

When the FOMC speaks, Wall Street listens. 

The words of the Chairman Ben Bernanke's press release will be dissected and analyzed.  A single mention of higher-than-expected inflation levels, or better-than-expected growth, and traders will rush to dump their bond positions in favor of equities. 

This has a negative effect on mortgage rates.

Conversely, if the Fed is dour on the economy, mortgage rates may fall.

We can’t know for sure what the Fed will say or do tomorrow afternoon so if you're floating a mortgage rate and wondering whether to lock, the safe choice is to lock prior to 2:15 PM ET Wednesday.

Conforming Loan Costs Are Rising, Says Freddie Mac

Mortgage rates may be dropping, but mortgage costs are not.

According to Freddie Mac, the average required discount points on a conforming mortgage rate are higher by 0.1 percent since early-May.

A "discount point" is prepaid mortgage interest; an up-front fee paid by a borrower in exchange for a lower mortgage rate. In most cases, discount points are tax-deductible.

Tax-deductible or not, though, rising costs are rising costs and Freddie Mac glosses over it.  In its weekly press release, the government group offers mortgage rate comparisons to weeks prior, but doesn't do the same for required points.

The press fails to mention discount points entirely.

An increase of 1/10 percent in discount points costs homebuyers and refinancing households an extra $100 per $100,000 borrowed.

The hike reminds us that there's more to a mortgage than just its rate -- costs matter, too.  And if you've only been watching the headlines, you would have missed how costs are rising.

Should You Refinance Your Mortgage?

Because of strife in Greece, Spain and North Korea, conforming mortgage rates are back to all-time lows. They're at levels not seen in 50 years.  For homeowners that missed the Refi Boom of November 2009, it's a second chance.

In this well-presented, 3-minute video from NBC's The Today Show, you'll get tips getting low rates and choosing the best time to lock in.

Some of the topics covered include:

• Why were the experts wrong about rates moving higher this summer?
• How much money can you save with a 1 point drop in your interest rate?
• Should you buy a bigger home now that rates have fallen?

The advice in the piece is matter-of-fact and centered.  There is no cheerleading and the message is honest. Mortgage rates are low and they likely won't stay that way.  If you've been thinking about a refinance, talk to your loan officer as soon as possible.

Shopping For Mortgage Rates Is Part Research Skills, Part Luck

Shopping multiple lenders for a "good mortgage rate" can sometimes save you 1/8 percent on your rate and/or a few hundred dollars in fees. However, when it comes to getting the best mortgage rate, you're going to more than good research skills.

You're going to need some luck.

Mortgage rates are unpredictable, ever-changing, and rarely change as expected.

For example, when the Federal Reserve left the mortgage market March 31, 2010, analysts said that mortgage rates would rise by a half-percent or more. It was practically stated as fact on TV.  When April 1 came around, though, rates didn't rise.

Instead, a volcano erupted and mortgage rates dropped on safe haven buying.

Then, a week later, as  the volcano ash cleared, mortgage rates were supposed to resume their rise. Only they didn't. Instead, a debt crisis emerged in the Eurozone and mortgage rates dropped.

Since March 31, conforming mortgage rates are lower by roughly 0.125 percent, according to Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey.  At today's rates, the savings are roughly $20 per month per $200,000 borrowed -- or $100 per month based on their original, post-March 31 forecast.

It brings us to one of the most important axioms in rate shopping: You can't shop for good luck.

• On some days, rates go higher
• On some days, rates go lower
• On some days, rates stay the same

Occasionally, there are days when rates do all three.

As a home buyer or would-be refinancer, what rate you get depends on at what time of day you do your shopping.

You can't predict what will happen next in mortgage markets -- even just an hour from now. Therefore, the smartest move, sometimes, is just lock your rate now.  At least that way, you've got a guarantee.

Markets Ignore The April Jobs Report And It's Good News For Mortgage Rates

On the first Friday of every month, the U.S. government releases its Non-Farm Payrolls report. 

More commonly called "the jobs report", Non-Farm Payrolls is a major market mover. The number of working Americans is directly tied to the health of the economy which, in turn, drives the stock and bond markets.

In general, when jobs numbers improve, it's good for stocks and bad for mortgage bonds. It follows, therefore, that conforming mortgage rates rise because rates always move opposite of mortgage bond prices.

Conversely, when jobs numbers worsen, it tends to be bad for stocks and good for mortgage bonds.  Mortgage rates fall.

Today, markets are behaving a bit differently.

Despite 290,000 jobs created in April 2010 -- nearly twice the expected amount -- and a 40 percent upward revision of March's numbers, mortgage rates are essentially unchanged. 

In a normal environment, rates would be higher.  Today is not normal.

Today is a departure because, for all of the jobs report's import to Wall Street, it's less important to markets than what's happening in Greece right now.

Greece is struggling to meet its debt obligations and its citizens are rioting.

Until a debt solution for Greece is made that sticks, unrest in the region will drive safe haven buying both domestically and abroad. U.S. mortgage bonds will gain on that movement because mortgage bonds are "safe", and mortgage rates will fall.

Indeed, this is exactly what's been happening since the start of April. Mortgage markets have been rallying for 5 weeks.

So, today's jobs news is terrific for the economy and mortgage rates should be rising because of it.  But, they're not. Consider taking advantage -- lock in a rate.

The Fed Adjourns From A 2-Day Meeting Today And What It Means For Mortgage Rates

The Federal Reserve adjourns from a scheduled, 2-day meeting today.  It's one of 8 scheduled Fed meetings for 2010.

Upon adjournment, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke & Co. will release a formal statement to the market. In it, the Fed is expected to announce "no change" in the Fed Funds Rate.

The Fed Funds Rate is currently in a target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

The Fed Funds Rate is an inter-bank lending rate. It's also the basis for Prime Rate, a consumer interest rate on which credit card payments are based, among other consumer loans.  Prime Rate is equal to the Fed Funds Rate + 3 percent.  Credit card rates, therefore, will likely stay flat today, too.

Mortgage rates, however, should change.  Possibly by a lot.  The 30-year fixed mortgage does not correlate with the Fed Funds Rate (as shown in the chart at right).

The reason mortgage rates will change today is because, in its statement, the Federal Reserve will highlight vrious parts of the economy, identifying strengths, weaknesses and probable threats to growth. 

These observations influence investors with a stake in bond markets and future returns and, with Wall Street on edge right now -- unsure of whether recent economic growth is a longer-term trend or a short-lived blip --  mortgage rates could shoot higher or they could drop, depending on how traders interpret the Fed.

It's a difficult time to be shopping mortgages.

Further complicating matters is Greece's recent debt downgrade to junk status. A small contagion fear is budding worldwide and, as a result, the flight-to-quality has picked up steam. Mortgage rates are down because of it but could reverse higher at any moment.

Therefore, if you're actively shopping for a mortgage today, it may be prudent to lock your rate ahead of the Fed's announcement and any major market reversal. Mortgage rates may fall today, but there's very little room for them to fall.  This is, however, a lot of room for them to rise.

The Fed adjourns at 2:15 PM ET.  Call your loan officer to lock your rate.

How Iceland's Volcanoes Are Helping Mortgage Rates Fall

Mortgage rates and home affordability have improved lately, thanks to an unlikely ally -- Mother Nature.

In the 7 days since Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull erupted, ash clouds have grounded planes, disrupted businesses, and stranded exports in warehouses worldwide.

It's a drag on commerce that's spilled over onto Wall Street. As experts debate the potential for future seismic activity, traders are taking some of their investment risk off the table. 

In trading circles, it's called "safe haven buying". When the market gets cloudy, investors often move their cash into relatively safe assets.  This includes government-backed securities -- mortgage-bonds among them.

Demand for bonds rise, pushing up prices and driving down rates.

Conforming and FHA mortgage rates touched a 3-week low earlier this week.

Volcanic eruptions and like natural disasters remind us: mortgage rates change for all sorts of reasons. Some we can predict, most we cannot. There's literally thousands of influences on the U.S. mortgage market.

If you've been shopping for a home or floating a mortgage rate, luck's been on your side. Mortgage rates have fallen post-Eyjafjallajökull. However, as ash clouds dissipate and business resumes worldwide, investors will regain their collective appetite for risk and safe haven buying will reach its natural end.

When that happens, mortgage rates will rise.

Therefore, use the seismic uncertainty to your advantage.  Consider locking your mortgage rate sooner rather than later -- while rates are still low.